Revisiting Justin Sun’s 2016 Investment

Revisiting Justin Sun's 2016 Investment Insights: The Key to Earning Your First Million Isn't "Hard Work" but "Choosing Wisely"

Recently, a 2016 audio clip from Justin Sun's Himalaya FM show, *The Path to Financial Freedom Revolution*, has gone viral again. Many investors, driven by curiosity, have revisited this recording. For me, what resonates most isn't the controversy surrounding him later, but the "contrarian judgment" and "trend intuition" he displayed at just 26 years old—a cognitive gap that is precisely what separates ordinary people from their first million.

A decade ago, the investment market, much like today, was filled with noise. Back then, Wall Street collectively doubted the electric vehicle industry, Tesla's charging network was dismissed as "unrealistic," and its stock price fluctuated amid skepticism. Chinese concept stocks faced a crisis of trust, with Vipshop's stock plummeting to $6.50 due to financing difficulties, earning it the label of a "has-been e-commerce" company. As for NVIDIA, it was still overshadowed by AMD, and no one could have predicted it would grow into a $4.4 trillion giant during the AI boom.

Yet, Justin Sun's judgments at the time transcended short-term market sentiment. He bet on Tesla because he believed the "replacement of gasoline cars with electric vehicles" was an irreversible megatrend, and market skepticism created a window for buying at a low price. He dared to invest in Vipshop because he saw that the core logic of "flash sales" remained intact, and the industry's winter was just a temporary setback. His choice of NVIDIA was even more foresighted, as he anticipated that "chip computing power would become a core infrastructure of the future"—judgments not based on complex financial formulas but on insights into "industry fundamentals" and "human needs."

What's even more valuable for ordinary people is his breakdown of the "methodology for earning your first million," which remains highly relevant today. He advised young people seeking quick wealth to avoid "red ocean" industries and instead focus on sectors at the "tipping point of a trend." Entering too early might make you a pioneer who fails, while entering too late leaves you with only scraps. The best timing is when an industry is on the verge of exploding but most people haven't yet reacted. For example, a few years ago, live-streaming e-commerce wasn't dominated by professional salespeople but by ordinary individuals willing to show their faces and express themselves. Last year, during the AI boom, the first wave of people monetizing AI courses were influencers who quickly turned their "cognitive advantage" into products.

He also emphasized the importance of "long slopes and thick snow": industries that can truly help ordinary people accumulate wealth must have growth cycles of at least 10 years, with an annual compound growth rate of at least 20%. Only a sufficiently long runway allows ordinary people's experience and resources to compound—if an industry's growth period is only a year or two, the rules are barely learned before decline sets in, making it difficult to reap rewards no matter how hard you work. This principle still applies today in fields like new energy, AI, and hard tech: choosing the right track can propel even those with average initial abilities forward with the industry's momentum.

Most interestingly, he interpreted "human needs" through the lens of the "seven deadly sins." He believed that good investment or entrepreneurial opportunities are hidden within these sins: social media satisfies the "desire for showing off," short videos address "laziness and boredom," and paid knowledge exploits "anxiety." These needs don't require user education; they inherently have a market. Today's pet economy and health consumption are essentially precise responses to the "desire for companionship" and the "instinct for survival." Ordinary people who can identify these "needs that don't require market education" significantly increase their chances of success.

However, he also pointed out an often-overlooked factor: even the best opportunities must "fit you." No matter how big the trend, if your abilities and resources don't match, you can only watch others profit. For example, during the live-streaming e-commerce boom, those who rose first were people skilled in expression. In the AI boom, those who monetized quickly were influencers who understood content and knew how to sell courses. Opportunities are never "available to everyone" but are "seized by those who fit."

Looking back, the core message of Justin Sun's 2016 talk can be summed up in one sentence: for ordinary people, earning their first million doesn't rely on the brute force of "working multiple jobs" but on the skill of "choosing the right track." The essence of financial freedom is monetizing cognition—when you can see through industry trends, understand human needs, and find opportunities that fit you, money naturally follows.

Listening to this decade-old audio clip today, it's less about "learning investment techniques" and more about "calibrating cognitive direction." Instead of struggling in a saturated market, it's better to look ahead at emerging growth sectors. Rather than obsessing over short-term gains, it's wiser to focus on finding industries with "long slopes and thick snow." After all, for ordinary people, choosing wisely once is more important than working hard for ten years.