Why 96% Can’t Survive 12 Months? The Cru

Why 96% Can't Survive 12 Months? The Cruel Timeline of Sustained Profits in Day Trading or Swing Trading

 

Many people need years of investment before achieving consistent profitability in trading. If you study trading full-time, learn under a mentor, and focus on 1-2 strategies, you still need at least one year to make sustained profits through day trading or swing trading—with the fastest cases taking six months and most taking longer. For those learning to trade futures, stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, or other assets part-time, it typically takes 1-2 years or more to achieve stable profits driven by skill rather than luck. These timelines are derived from analyzing the experiences of thousands of traders, as quick profits usually stem from good luck or extremely favorable market conditions rather than genuine trading ability.

 

I once worked as a trader at a professional proprietary trading firm for seven years before transitioning to independent trading. During that period, the trading floor had around 30 formal traders, plus 5-10 people in a training pool hoping to become full traders—this pool rotated every few months. From this experience, I summarized key insights: only about 4% of those who tried (including applying for positions, passing interviews, showing up daily to learn/practice day trading, and actively consulting experienced traders) eventually became formal traders, while 96% failed to earn enough to justify their time. Profitable traders spent at least six months focusing on 1-2 strategies before making substantial profits, with many taking a year or more—this required full-time commitment five days a week, involving extensive practice, trade reviews, analysis, and continuous strategy optimization. Those who tried to learn everything or use too many strategies usually underperformed. Leaders of other proprietary trading firms I met during that time confirmed their data aligned with this. I believe the success rate could be higher if everyone persisted for at least six months, but most aspiring traders quit when they realized making money in a few months (as they initially expected) was unrealistic.

 

The time to become a consistently profitable trader varies by individual circumstances: full-time learning with a mentor, membership in a high-quality trading community, or treating trading as a full-time job takes at least 12 months (with variations by person); part-time learning with similar guidance, regular reviews, and active refinement of a specific method typically takes 1-2 years or more (shorter timelines are rare); part-time, unfocused learning—randomly testing methods and relying on intuition—may take years or never lead to stable profits. You can accelerate progress through intensive practice, such as using simulated trading with high-quality historical data and replay functions to trade past market days as if they were real. Additionally, you can join Axi Select, a proprietary trading program by leading global broker Axi, which offers promising traders a platform to gain real-market experience, take growth challenges, improve skills through rigorous evaluations, and access up to 90% profit splits with proprietary trading partners. On May 10, "Trader Talk" will host a Proprietary Trading Strategy Forum in Ganzhou, Jiangxi (the "cradle of Hakka culture"), featuring heavyweight guests like global proprietary trading expert Kelvin Zhao, SMC trading strategy expert Li Xiaodong, top professional trader Cheng Yan, and proprietary trader Aya (managing millions in capital) to share cutting-edge trading programs, concepts, and practical strategies. Whether you're a novice or an advanced trader seeking breakthroughs, this forum offers inspiration—limited spots are available, so interested traders can scan the QR code in the image to register.

 

No matter how smart or hardworking someone is, learning to trade takes months or more—and even after mastering it, market conditions change. Excellent traders adapt their strategies to new markets and know when not to trade; many fail after markets shift, even if they traded well for months or years. Beyond strategy, trading psychology is critical: over-aggressiveness, excessive timidity, or fear of losses can render any strategy ineffective, as emotional states disrupt execution. Cultivating the right mindset is harder and takes longer than developing a strategy.

 

Why does it usually take over a year to become a successful trader? Even mastering one strategy requires at least 5-6 months of focused practice to achieve consistent profitability, and at that stage, you'll likely only excel in specific market conditions. Sustained profits demand learning to trade effectively across different environments, which involves understanding when your strategy works (and when it doesn't), practicing to identify suitable market conditions before trading, managing emotions to avoid overtrading or missing opportunities, and integrating others' insights into your own beliefs (since everyone perceives markets differently—true mastery comes from internalizing knowledge, not just absorbing it). Many get stuck because they skip this last step; every successful trader I know adapted others' ideas into their own style to form a profitable approach.

 

Trading isn't about reading, accumulating knowledge, or predicting markets (many waste time on these); instead, decide how you want to trade, build a strategy around that, optimize only that strategy, test it on a demo account, analyze each trade to reduce risk/boost profits/improve win rates, and focus on favorable conditions while avoiding unfavorable ones. Markets behave differently daily—studying 1,000 charts won't prepare you for every scenario; success lies in quickly identifying strategy-aligned signals amid changing data. Most traders can only master 1-2 strategies (our brains lack the capacity to track every price move), meaning most time is spent waiting for strategy conditions—this is hard: in a 2-hour window (7,200 seconds), your strategy may trigger only a few times, with execution taking less than 5 seconds total; the rest is waiting, observing, and monitoring. For swing trading, opportunities may come once or twice a week (or monthly), with constant risk of impulsive trades ruining your strategy. Randomly executing a strategy correctly has less than a 0.01% chance—only rigorous training lets you act accurately in those 5 seconds, ensuring stable results for day or swing trading.

 

Traders must act faster than others during their ideal entry moments, as liquidity (shares, contracts, or lots available to trade) is limited at each price level. Executing quickly when signals appear is a skill learned through practice—charts and books don't teach that prices move fast, and you need to balance speed with patience. Every trade has nuances: I've seen traders with good strategies lose money because they entered/exited too slowly, while faster execution of the same strategy would have been profitable. For day traders, a few seconds can make or break a strategy; for swing traders, it's a few hours or days. Distractions or trying new strategies only delay progress.

 

Trading is far more complex than social media posts (with polished charts) suggest—every high-quality, strategy-aligned trade requires hundreds of hours of practice. Professional traders seem to use multiple strategies effortlessly, but they started by mastering 1-2 methods in specific markets before adding more.

 

Some traders make money early—this may reflect ability, but more often it's luck or favorable markets. For example, after the 2020 COVID crash, retail traders with government stimulus checks flooded markets, pushing stocks to vertical gains for over a year—a rare "easy money" environment where simple buy-and-hold worked, regardless of strategy. By late 2021-early 2022, however, those boasting about big profits were replaced by people asking "what now?" amid volatility or losses, as "easy money" markets only last days to a year. When conditions shift, most give back profits to more skilled traders.

 

Anyone can win a few trades by luck—thousands do it daily—but without a systematic process, luck runs out. Only systematic traders who build processes and invest long-term avoid giving back profits; they adapt to market changes by pausing trading or switching strategies.

 

The most direct path to trading success is accepting that mastering one strategy takes at least 12 months—focus on 1-2 strategies, review trades weekly/monthly, and improve by reducing mistakes (e.g., trades inconsistent with your strategy or missed opportunities) rather than switching strategies. Identify when your strategy underperforms or excels, adjust rules (e.g., more patience in some cases, more decisiveness in others), ignore others' methods, focus on your own trades, screenshot trades with notes (including mindset), keep a trading journal (recording pre/post-trade thoughts, strengths, and weaknesses), define favorable market conditions, optimize entries/stops, and maximize profits from each trade.

 

Becoming a trader isn't a destination but a continuous process—you earn the title only by following rules, controlling losses, and consistently profiting; stray from these, and your trading career pauses until you reset. Building a trading system takes at least 12 months of practice and optimization, and for most, it takes years. Trading is never easy.