The share of non-fossil energy sources in the global primary energy consumption mix increase

In the context of the evolving global energy landscape, a recent announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has garnered significant attention. In 2024, the share of oil in the global energy consumption mix fell to its lowest level in history, dropping below 30% for the first time. This is a stark contrast to 50 years ago when oil accounted for 46% of the total energy consumption. The primary reason for this decline is the decreasing demand for oil in the road transport sector, coupled with the increasing adoption of electric vehicles.

According to the IEA's "Global Energy Review" data, global oil demand increased by only 0.8% in 2024, significantly lower than the 1.9% growth seen in 2023. This slowdown is mainly due to a marked deceleration in global road transport demand, particularly in China and developed economies, which offset the increased oil demand from other sectors. In 2024, global energy demand grew by 2.2%, outpacing the 3.2% growth in global GDP but exceeding the average annual energy demand growth rate of 1.3% from 2013 to 2023. Emerging and developing economies accounted for over 80% of this growth, with China's energy demand increasing by less than 3%, half of its 2023 growth rate. Meanwhile, developed economies saw a modest 1% increase in energy demand after several years of decline.

The electricity sector was the main driver of global energy demand growth in 2024, with global electricity consumption surging by nearly 1,100 terawatt-hours (TWh), a 4.3% increase. This growth was nearly double the average annual growth rate over the past decade, driven by increased cooling needs due to rising global temperatures, as well as higher industrial consumption, transport electrification, and the growing energy demands of data centers and artificial intelligence.

Low-emission energy sources satisfied most of the global electricity demand growth in 2024. The global installed capacity of renewable energy increased by 700 gigawatts (GW), setting a new record for the 22nd consecutive year. Nuclear power also saw significant growth, with new installations reaching their highest level in 30 years. Together, renewables and nuclear power accounted for 80% of the global electricity generation increase and contributed 40% of the total global electricity supply.

However, the slowdown in oil demand growth and the increase in oil production may lead to an oversupply in the global oil market by 2025. The IEA predicts that due to strong production in the Americas, the gradual easing of OPEC+ production cuts, and lower-than-expected demand growth, the global oil market could face an oversupply of 600,000 barrels per day. This perspective is supported by the "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report," which also highlights the long-term trend towards green and low-carbon energy transitions.

The global energy landscape in 2024 is characterized by stabilizing total energy demand and accelerating trends in electrification, green energy, new technologies, and integrated energy systems. The share of non-fossil energy sources in the global primary energy consumption mix increased by 0.6 percentage points. China continues to lead the global green and low-carbon energy transition, with non-fossil energy investments accounting for one-third of the global total. The electrification rate of end-use energy in China reached approximately 29% in 2024 and is expected to rise to around 30% by 2025. New energy technologies, such as energy storage and carbon capture and storage (CCS), have seen significant scale-up, supporting the development of green hydrogen, green methanol, and green ammonia industries.

The integration of traditional and new energy sources is accelerating, with the "oil and gas + new energy" model gaining traction. The global electricity consumption growth in 2024 was primarily met by renewables and natural gas, with global natural gas demand increasing by 2.7% (approximately 115 billion cubic meters), significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of 75 billion cubic meters over the past decade.

These trends indicate a profound transformation in the global energy landscape, with oil's role diminishing while new energy sources and electricity gain prominence. The future of energy development is filled with both opportunities and challenges.