ASML: Challenges and Prospects Amid Order Decline and Performance Pressure

In the grand landscape of the global semiconductor industry, ASML undoubtedly occupies a pivotal position. As a leading enterprise in the lithography machine field, every move it makes attracts widespread attention from the industry, with every action having a far - reaching impact. On April 16, 2025, ASML's first - quarter financial report for 2025 was released, which, like a pebble thrown into a calm lake, stirred up ripples and triggered extensive discussions both within and outside the industry.

A Sharp Drop in Orders in the First Quarter, with a Chill in the Air

Financial report data shows that ASML's new order value in the first quarter was only 3.94 billion euros. Compared with the impressive 7.1 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2024, this figure represents a sharp drop of 44.4%. Such a significant decline is truly astonishing. Moreover, it is far lower than the average forecast of 4.82 billion euros by analysts. Among these, the much - anticipated EUV lithography machine orders only recorded 1.2 billion euros. The substantial reduction in orders has undoubtedly poured cold water on ASML's development momentum and has also made the market deeply concerned about its future direction.

Second - Quarter Performance Guidance Falls Short of Expectations, Clouding the Outlook

In addition to the disappointing orders in the first quarter, ASML's performance guidance for the second quarter of 2025 also had a significant impact on the market. The company expects net sales in the second quarter to be between 7.2 billion and 7.7 billion euros, with a gross profit margin ranging from 50% to 53%. Citi analysts acutely pointed out that the median value of ASML's sales guidance is 7.45 billion euros, while the figure generally expected by the market was 7.77 billion euros. This performance guidance that falls short of expectations has somewhat dampened the confidence of investors and has also made ASML's future performance full of uncertainties.

Tariff Policies Add Pressure, and the Future is Veiled in Mist

At the financial report briefing held by ASML, remarks by President and CEO Peter Wennink cast an even thicker shadow over the company's future development. He stated that the recently announced tariff policies have greatly increased the uncertainty of the macro - environment. The potential impacts of tariffs are complex and can be roughly divided into four categories. First, a tariff will be imposed on the entire machine systems shipped to the United States; second, the parts and tools used during on - site operations in the United States will also be subject to tariffs; third, imported materials with a production and manufacturing link in the United States will also face tariffs; finally, if other countries impose tariffs on goods shipped from the United States (if applicable), it will also have a knock - on effect on ASML.

Furthermore, the impact of tariffs goes far beyond this. It will also indirectly impact global economic growth and overall market demand. In such an environment, ASML's business expansion and supply chain operations will face unprecedented challenges. Every decision needs to be weighed more carefully; every step forward requires more cautious handling of various potential risks.

Affected by the combined effect of the above - mentioned many unfavorable factors, on April 16, ASML's share price dropped by more than 5% in pre - market trading. This significant fluctuation in share price intuitively reflects the market's concerns and unease about ASML's current situation.

ASML is now at a critical crossroads. Multiple challenges such as order decline, performance pressure, and tariff policies, like mountains, stand in the way of its development. However, challenges and opportunities often coexist. Whether ASML can rely on its profound technological foundation, strong R & D capabilities, and flexible market strategies to find a breakthrough in the predicament and achieve a counter - attack remains to be seen. After all, in the long history of the semiconductor industry, many enterprises have experienced the baptism of wind and rain and ultimately emerged from the ashes to create remarkable achievements. What kind of story will ASML write? Let's stay tuned.