The news that the White House of the United States announced a 50% punitive tariff on Chinese goods on April 9th was like a heavy bomb, setting off a huge wave in the global photovoltaic industry. After adding the original tax rate, the total tariff on China's photovoltaic products exported to the United States soared to 104%, setting a new record since the Sino-US trade war. This "nuclear-level" sanction measure is like a cold iron gate, completely blocking the direct export route of China's photovoltaic products to the United States, and also marking that the global photovoltaic industry competition has entered a "white-hot" and intense stage. At this moment, people can't help but wonder how Chinese photovoltaic enterprises should break the deadlock? And where will the global energy sovereignty game go?
The United States' "severe blow" of tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products this time can be called a double blockade. Originally, the tariff on Chinese photovoltaic products in the United States was 54% (the original 20% plus anti-dumping and countervailing duties), but now it has soared to 104%. Coupled with the transit tariffs in Southeast Asia (46% - 49% in Vietnam and Cambodia), the export channel of China's photovoltaic products to the United States has been almost completely closed. Judging from the data comparison, China's photovoltaic exports to the United States only accounted for 3% of the total in 2023, and this proportion is likely to drop to the "freezing point" in 2024. At the same time, under the stimulation of the subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States, the domestic photovoltaic production capacity in the United States has skyrocketed. The component production capacity in the United States has surged from 7GW in 2022 to 50GW, achieving an astonishing 7-fold growth. Behind this is the combination strategy of "high tariffs + high subsidies". Take First Solar as an example. With a government subsidy of 660 million US dollars, its net profit in 2023 increased by 20 times, and its market value topped the list of global photovoltaic enterprises, becoming a typical beneficiary of the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry in the United States.
On the global photovoltaic landscape, a fierce "battle among four powers" involving the United States, China, India, and the European Union has already unfolded. The United States, by means of seizing technological advantages and building a closed-loop industrial chain, attempts to take a dominant position in the photovoltaic field. In terms of the technological route, the United States has avoided the TOPCon technology dominated by China and instead bet on PERC (ES Foundry) and HJT (Mission Solar). Its ambitious goal is to have a planned domestic production capacity of over 200GW (including silicon wafers, batteries, and components) by 2025, aiming directly at "full industrial chain autonomy". India, on the other hand, uses policy levers to vigorously promote import substitution. Through the PLI plan, India's domestic component production capacity has soared from 7GW to 50GW, and the import proportion has been reduced from 45% to 25%. Moreover, its ALMM certification system compulsorily requires the use of domestic components in government projects, and the new tariff policy is undoubtedly a "precise protection" for the domestic photovoltaic industry. In addition, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea have also followed suit. The European Union has launched the "International Solar Energy Manufacturing Initiative", and France has planned to achieve full-chain production capacity by 2035; South Korea's OCI has even invested 265 million US dollars to build a 2GW battery factory in the United States, actively participating in this global photovoltaic industry competition.
Facing such a severe situation, China's photovoltaic industry is not without countermeasures, and its "breakthrough code" is gradually emerging. On the one hand, shifting to emerging markets has become an important development direction. Regions without tariff barriers such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa have become new growth poles for China's photovoltaic industry. In 2024, China's exports to Europe and Asia increased by 37% year-on-year, demonstrating the huge potential of these emerging markets. On the other hand, technological iteration and overseas factory establishment go hand in hand. For example, Trina Solar sold a 5GW battery factory to the US-based T1 Energy, in exchange for technological cooperation and market access, opening up a new path for the enterprise's development. And next-generation technologies, such as perovskite and BC batteries and other disruptive technologies, may become the key to China's photovoltaic industry "overtaking on a different track". At the policy level, China has also taken corresponding countermeasures and multilateral cooperation measures. China's Ministry of Commerce has launched a counter-subsidy review of US polysilicon and may impose retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, China is actively promoting photovoltaic supply chain cooperation among RCEP countries and BRICS countries to hedge against the risks brought about by unilateral sanctions.
There is no real winner in this photovoltaic war, but those who fall behind will definitely be eliminated. The measure of the United States increasing the tariff by 104% is undoubtedly a wake-up call, warning that the global energy sovereignty competition has been upgraded from simple "market competition" to "national strategic game". For China's photovoltaic industry, it is necessary to be driven by the dual engines of "technology + globalization" and firmly hold the "lifeline" of a 70% market share in the wave of anti-globalization. Because this battle not only concerns the survival and development of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises but also determines the ownership of the global zero-carbon discourse power in the future. We look forward to China's photovoltaic industry being able to break through the predicament, grow in the face of challenges, and continue to write glorious chapters in the global photovoltaic industry.
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