The current international situation is complex and unpredictable, with the global economic landscape undergoing profound changes and adjustments. The U.S. "April 2nd reciprocal tariff" policy has caused significant disruptions in the global financial markets, leading to a surge in risk-averse sentiment worldwide. Against this backdrop, Asian markets have seen widespread declines, with Japanese and South Korean stocks plummeting, and European and American stock index futures also falling. Although the A-share market has not experienced an "independent trend," it has shown some bright spots while testing the support of the six-month line. Meanwhile, gold prices have hit new highs, reflecting market concerns about uncertainty. The Saudi stock market, affected by U.S. tariff policies and the plunge in oil prices, saw the Saudi All Share Index drop by 6.78% on April 6th, marking the largest single-day decline since 2020. Energy giant Saudi Aramco closed down 5.25%, with its market value evaporating by approximately 640 billion yuan in a single day. Oil prices have also plummeted recently due to factors such as Trump's tariff policies exacerbating global trade frictions, OPEC+ exceeding production expectations, and continued declines in U.S. PMI data, with a cumulative two-day drop of over 12%. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that while non-farm payrolls increased in March, the unemployment rate rose, and wage inflation trends eased. However, Trump's comprehensive import tariffs may test the resilience of the U.S. labor market in the coming months. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that tariffs are higher than expected, and their economic impact could be significant, including higher inflation and slower growth. He noted that more clarity is needed before considering policy adjustments. Multiple data points and sentiment surveys indicate that the U.S. economy stagnated in the first quarter due to trade policy uncertainties. Wall Street has revised down its estimate for U.S. GDP growth to below 1%, and economists do not rule out the possibility of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months. JPMorgan has raised the probability of a U.S. recession within the year to 60%. In this complex situation, diplomatic maneuvers and economic strategy adjustments among countries have entered a critical phase. China's open confrontation on the tariff issue indicates that it is well-prepared. As the U.S. tariff policy affects the world indiscriminately, it may prompt other countries to strengthen trade ties, fostering a dual-core global structure. In the future, we may see deeper business cooperation between China and other countries. However, the market remains filled with uncertainty, and investors need to closely monitor changes in global economic data, policy adjustments by various countries, and developments in geopolitical situations. Caution is advised in making investment decisions to cope with potential market volatility.
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